High-Resolution Growth Forecast

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The synthesis of historical trend analyses and land use studies is a high-resolution forecast of student population growth. Incorporating state-of-the-art geographic information systems (GIS) tools as well as proven statistical methods, the Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) can provide a school district with a building-by-building enrollment forecast.

This Integrated Planning for School and Community (IPSAC) component produces an Out-of-Capacity analysis and creates a building-by-building enrollment forecast in relation to the capacity of the schools and is the springboard for school districts to develop long range school facility plans.

Read description of this data chart example and view larger image in printable PDF format. (18 KB)*

The Out-of-Capacity analysis worksheet is the cumulative output of cohort survival ratio analysis, enrollment projections, community interviews, and the GIS parcel analysis. The worksheet illustrates the school capacity gap by year in a simple color coding system. The school enrollment is shaded in red if the enrollment exceeds building capacity and green if enrollment is below building capacity. Yellow represents a two-year warning before a school is over capacity.

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